A Prospective Validation of the Updated Movement Disorders Society Research Criteria for Prodromal Parkinson's Disease

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this study was to validate the recently updated research criteria for prodromal Parkinson's disease (pPD) proposed by the International Parkinson's Disease and Movement Disorders Society. Methods: A total of 16 of 21 markers of pPD were ascertained in the Hellenic Longitudinal Investigation of Aging and Diet cohort composed of community-dwelling individuals aged ≥65 years. The probability of pPD was calculated for 961 individuals without Parkinson's disease (PD) or dementia with Lewy bodies at baseline who were followed-up for a median of 3 years. The ability of the criteria to predict conversion to PD/dementia with Lewy bodies was assessed by estimating their sensitivity and specificity, plotting receiver operating characteristics curves, and using logistic regression. These analyses were repeated using the original criteria. Results: No incident PD/dementia with Lewy bodies case had probable pPD at baseline (ie, ≥80% pPD probability). At cut-offs of 10%, 30%, and 50% probability of pPD, the sensitivity and specificity of the criteria ranged from 4.5% to 27.3%, and 85.7% to 98.3% respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was 0.691 (95% confidence intervals, 0.605–0.777). In logistic regression models, the criteria-derived posttest odds of pPD were a significant predictor of conversion at follow-up. The updated criteria performed similarly to the original but showed a slight increase in sensitivity. Conclusions: The new criteria demonstrated suboptimal sensitivity in our random sample of community-dwelling individuals. The absence of specialized assessments with high likelihood ratios in our cohort could be hindering the demonstration of higher sensitivities. Such assessments should be a part of future validation attempts. © 2020 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2020 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society