The Aegean Sea demersal fishery under four climatic and socio-political futures

Abstract

The future of the Aegean Sea demersal fishery is projected under four climatic and socio-political scenarios, namely: “World Markets“, “Global Sustainability”, “National Enterprise” and “Local Stewardship”. The scenarios combine two IPCC climatic futures (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with four socio-political systems that foresee changes in economic, technological as well as management aspects of the fishery corresponding to four contrasting futures. The future projection of a large number of physico-chemical variables per climatic scenario, made available through CERES project (http://ceresproject.eu/), gave the opportunity to model the effects of Climate Change (CC) on the productivity of demersal stocks. The projections foresee an increase in primary productivity in the Aegean Sea waters, which is projected to become mesotrophic from currently oligotrophic, while statistical analysis suggests that mullet stocks might be favored, while the European hake stock is more likely to be in decline. The combined, as well as the individual, effects of the different components of change on the fishery are explored. With respect to management, the results demonstrate the key role of technical interactions in the attempt to achieve sustainable and optimally harvested fisheries. It is found that a minor reduction of effort can achieve sustainability and good yield (PGY) from key stocks. A main source of uncertainty stems from the large number of stocks that remain unassessed. The ongoing tropicalization of the Aegean Sea and the response of these other stocks to CC increases the uncertainty and creates new challenges but also new opportunities for the Aegean Sea demersal fishery. © 2022 Elsevier Ltd