Renewable energy sources generation forecasting in aggregated energy system level

Abstract

Renewable Energy Sources (RES) generation forecasting is an approach to handle the stochasticity of RES. This concept is very crucial to transform RES plants into dispatchable and integrated them for contemporary energy markets. The majority of the literature focuses on individual plants. The data are collected in a site and used as inputs in the forecasting model. The present paper is centered on aggregated energy system level. The total capacities of Photovoltaics (PV) and Wind Turbine (WT) power of a country are regarded. A scenarios-based approach is followed in order to investigate how the number and types of inputs influence the forecasting performance. While most studies of the literature focus on individual systems, the paper contributes on the RES forecasting literature through the consideration of the total PV and WT generation capacity on aggregated power system level. © 2021 IEEE