Hierarchical Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for a Model of the Red Blood Cell

Abstract

Simulations of blood flows in microfluidic devices and physiological systems are gaining importance in complementing experimental and clinical studies. The predictive capabilities of these simulations hinge on the parameters of the red blood cell (RBC) model that are usually calibrated from experimental data. However, these parameter values may vary drastically when calibrated using different experimental quantities or experimental settings. In turn, the results of existing blood flow simulations largely depend on the utilized parameters that have been chosen to validate a particular experiment. We suggest a revision to this type of model calibration to properly integrate experimental data in the computational models and accordingly inform their predictions. In this context, we introduce the calibration of a popular RBC model using data-driven, hierarchical Bayesian inference. We employ data from classical experiments of RBC stretching by optical tweezers and tank treading in shear flows, and distinguish the calibration of the model parameters through single-level and hierarchical Bayesian uncertainty quantification. We find that the optimal model parameters depend not only on the data used for the inference but also on the way the data are used in the inference process. Single-level Bayesian models predict well the data used in their calibration, but are inferior to the hierarchical Bayesian model at predicting previously unseen data. This work demonstrates that the proper integration of experimental data is essential for the development of a robust and transferable RBC model. We believe that the present study can serve as a prototype across scientific fields, in revising the integration of computational models and heterogeneous experimental data. © 2021 American Physical Society.