The sliding surface roughness effect on landslides: A statistical study

Abstract

Spring-block models are a useful tool for modeling avalanche-like dynamics for catastrophic landslides. This paper examines the statistical behavior of the failure of a rock (or soil) slope taking into account the effect of roughness, through the use of the real contact area of sliding surface. It also examines the role of rainfall and assesses its effect on slope stability, as well as on the problem of natural hazard prediction. To this end, the article addresses also the emergence of possible precursor phenomena within the aforementioned context through the enrichment of a two-dimensional spring-block model with evolving displacement gradients and stochasticity. Cellular automaton simulations were used to verify the model predictions, which can be useful to geotechnical engineers and to engineering geologists, since an early prediction of the initiation of a rapid landslide can minimize its catastrophic results through proper safety and precautionary measures. © 2016 Taylor & Francis Group, London.