Spatial variations of Greek manufacturing employment growth: The effects of specialization and international trade

Abstract

This research analyses the effects of international trade, relative specialization and regional industrial structure on Greek regional employment growth over the 1995-2003 period. For this purpose, it employs trade-adjusted shift-share analysis, along with linear model extensions. The results obtained highlight the importance of local conditions and regional deviations from business cycles and sectoral trends. Relative regional specialization has, on average, a positive effect on regional employment growth. The direction of industry-mix effects depends on specializing on growing or declining sectors. Imports have negative employment effects; the exports' positive effect is weak and domestic demand remains an important positive factor.