Energy Use Forecasting with the Use of a Nested Structure Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Artificial Neural Networks
Επιτομή
The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach to energy use forecasting. We propose a nested fuzzy cognitive map in which each concept at a higher level can be decomposed into another fuzzy cognitive map, multilayer perceptron artificial neural network or long short-term memory network. Historical data related to energy consumption are used to construct a nested fuzzy cognitive map in order to better understand energy use behavior. Through the experiments, the usefulness of the nested structure in energy demand prediction is demonstrated, by calculating three popular metrics: Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error and the correlation coefficient. A comparative analysis is performed, applying classic multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks, long short-term memory networks and fuzzy cognitive maps. The results confirmed that the proposed approach outperforms the classic methods in terms of prediction accuracy. Moreover, the advantage of the proposed approach is the ability to present complex time series in the form of a clear nested structure presenting the main concepts influencing energy consumption on the first level. The second level allows for more detailed problem analysis and lower forecast errors. © 2022 by the authors.
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Decision-making process for photovoltaic solar energy sector development using fuzzy cognitive map technique
Papageorgiou K., Carvalho G., Papageorgiou E.I., Bochtis D., Stamoulis G. (2020)Photovoltaic Solar Energy (PSE) sector has sparked great interest from governments over the last decade towards diminution of world’s dependency to fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions reduction and global warming ... -
Forecasting of day-ahead natural gas consumption demand in Greece using adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
Papageorgiou K., Papageorgiou E.I., Poczeta K., Bochtis D., Stamoulis G. (2020)(1) Background: Forecasting of energy consumption demand is a crucial task linked directly with the economy of every country all over the world. Accurate natural gas consumption forecasting allows policy makers to formulate ... -
Exploring brazilian photovoltaic solar energy development scenarios using the fuzzy cognitive map wizard tool
Papageorgiou K., Carvalho G., Papageorgiou E.I., Papandrianos N.I., Mendonca M., Stamoulis G. (2020)Photovoltaic Solar Energy (PSE) sector has gained great attention during the last decades due to its significant role in the transition to sustainable energy systems. As a viable energy option, PSE has the potential to ...