Performance within a recession: The converging trajectories of retail centres in the UK

Abstract

Using retail-centre aggregated microeconomic data for over 65,000 retail and service units in the UK, we explore the differential influence of the 2007/8 economic recession on the performance of retail centres. For the first time in the context on town centre/high street analyses of performance, we employ growth and convergence models to examine whether centres with different vacancy rates in the pre-recession period converged in the recession period that followed. The results indicate that the recession had higher negative influence on those centres that experienced lower retail vacancy rates in the pre-recession period, leading to convergence in retail vacancy rates. Despite the negative effect of recession in the UK retail market, the results show that there were some retail centres which were resilient to the effects of recession. Finally, there is evidence that the location and the size of retail centres moderate the convergence path. © 2018 The Author(s). Regional Science Policy and Practice © 2018 RSAI