Fuzzy cognitive maps optimization for decision making and prediction

Abstract

Representing and analyzing the complexity of models constructed by data is a difficult and challenging task, hence the need for new, more effective techniques emerges, despite the numerous methodologies recently proposed in this field. In the present paper, the main idea is to systematically create a nested structure, based on a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM), in which each element/concept at a higher map level is decomposed into another FCM that provides a more detailed and precise representation of complex time series data. This nested structure is then optimized by applying evolutionary learning algorithms. Through the application of a dynamic optimization process, the whole nested structure based on FCMs is restructured in order to derive important relationships between map concepts at every nesting level as well as to determine the weights of these relationships on the basis of the available time series. This process allows discovering and describing hidden relationships among important map concepts. The paper proposes the application of the suggested nested approach for time series forecasting as well as for decision-making tasks regarding appliances’ energy consumption prediction. © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.