The effect of sea level rise on coastal populations: The case of the Gironde (Estuaries of Gironde)

Abstract

As part of the effort to address the degree of vulnerability and the potential risk of flooding from the rise in the sea level due to climate change, the coastal area of the Gironde delta (Estuaries of Gironde) shows that this vulnerability can be perceived only from an environmental point of view. In this paper, we seek to show an inextricable interaction between the pure environmental dimension and the population dimension. Currently, rising sea levels do not contribute in the same way to the potential emergence of flood risk of coastal areas such as river delta estuaries. This means that the concept of risk intensity should be carefully considered because a municipal unit that currently has a very low degree of vulnerability, could very well be subject to a change in its risk category in the future. This study indicates that local-regional bodies should focus on the fact that the group of municipalities that currently have a low level of vulnerability need to be able to cope with rising population pressures over a 2050-time horizon. Some municipalities currently showing low risk, may face a heightened risk in the future because, not only will new coastal areas and estuaries of the rivers face climate change induced flooding, but also likely population growth can cause an additional incidence of flooding. © 2020 Economic Society of Australia, Queensland