Currency crises in transition economies: An empirical analysis

Abstract

This paper examines the causes of turbulence in foreign exchange markets by looking closely at the experience of four transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Ukraine). It considers the influence of macroeconomic variables in currency crises occurrence through the use of logit models. In an environment of deteriorating fundamentals the examined issue is whether or not some fundamentals are able to maximise the likelihood of currency crisis incidence.